Monday, May 5, 2008

The Summer Hype

I've worked in the computer software industry for over twelve years. During that time, I've come to realize that tech stocks are like summer movies: they're accompanied by hype; people pay to much for them; and everyone realizes they just aren't very good. Here are this summer's cases in point.

AOL
Everyone must buy American Online. It's for sale! Get it while you still can!
Yeah, right. AOL hasn't done anything right in over a decade. Remember their merger with Time Warner? No good ideas coming from that place in recent memory, and I can't think of one person employed at AOL that's actually respected by the high tech community.
Time Warner is just dying to unload this dog. Do everyone a favor Microsoft and Yahoo (and whatever other suitors are out there) let this dog die. It has too many fleas, heart worms, and roundworms.

Microhoo!
The proposed merger of Microsoft and Yahoo. The deal of the century! This century is only eight years old, but I think there are better merger ideas than this one. The combination of two losers don't make a winner. Microsoft employees and shareholders should be breathing a sigh of relief. Every Yahoo shareholder should sue. Now. By the end of Friday, May 16th, Yahoo stock will be at the price of $19 a share where it belongs. That price is actually too high for a company that can't actually produce anything. It will probably never see $21 again in my lifetime.
Should this merger ever go through, Microsoft employees should update their resumes immediately because this acquisition will be on the wrong side of the balance sheet for a LOOOOOOOONG time.

Google Ads on Yahoo!
This is the great poison pill! The reason why Microsoft would not go hostile on its Yahoo takeover bid. Google ads!
Some nutjob on Wall Street actually said this deal was worth $1billion. Please. This deal isn't worth one billion pesos. If the Google ads covered in the deal could generate $1billion dollars, they wouldn't be farming it out to Yahoo.

Don't believe the hype. Though I'm sure someone will. Like I'll go see Iron Man and a bunch of other summer movies, too. Just don't complain about how you've spent your money if you do.

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